Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Who's being dealt?

The day before the deadline, anticipation killing anyone yet?

Here are your most rumoured names in order of the likelihood of them being dealt. Followed by potential suitors with a "?" I left out some of the lesser names:

1. Bill Guerin - 99% Washington/Montreal?
2. Derik Morris - 96% Boston/Philly?
3. Nik Antropov - 95% Colombus/Chicago/Pittsburgh?
4. Gary Roberts - 90% Calgary/San Jose/Pittsburght? (placed on waivers)
5. Mark Rechhi - 90% Montreal/Chicago/Vancouver?
6. Chris Neil - 87% Detroit/Calgary/New Jersey?
7. Dominic Moore - 85% Buffalo/Detroit/Dallas?
8. Doug Weight - 80% Chicago/Florida/Colombus?
9. Filip Kuba - 75% Calgary/Dallas/Boston?
10. Michael Nylander - 70% Chicago/Montreal?
11. Olli Jokinen - 67% Montreal/Calgary/NYR?
12. Miro Satan - 60% Vancouver/Montreal/Carolina? (placed on waivers)
13. Milan Hejduk - 50% Pittsburgh/Florida/Minnesota?
14. Pavel Kubina - 25% Colombus/Boston/Minnesota?
15. Ryan Smyth - 20% Vancouver/Montreal/Pittsburgh?
16. Chris Pronger - 18% St.Louis/Boston
17. Jay Bouwmeester - 15% Philly/
18. Tomas Kaberle - 10% Boston/Washington/New Jersey?
19. Jason Blake - 8% Dallas/Minnesota?
20. Martin St.Louis - 5% Pittsburgh/ Montreal/Vancouver?
21. Jason Spezza - 4% Colombus/Chicago?
22. Ilya Kovalchuck - 3% Edmonton?
23. Lecavalier - 2% - Montreal?
24. Brodeur - 0% ;)
25. Ovechkin - 0% ;)

Had to round out 25, so good enough.

Dominic Moore - Who is he? What's he worth?

So Dominic Moore wants $2.5-3 million according to a lot of reports. And Burke says the two sides are about $1 million apart on a new contract which means Burke feels Moore is worth $1.5-2 million range. Burke is right, that's fair for Moore. Who is Dominic Moore?

Moore is a really good 3rd line centre. He's put up 41 pts through 3/4's of the season so far. So he's on pace for about 50-55 points. Moore has been playing all year with the teams top scorer, Jason Blake (50 pts on the season), and the two of them have been playing their 5 on 5 time for the most part against other teams 2nd and 3rd lines, as the Antropov-Stajan line has been up against the top lines. This is something people don't consider when they look at Moore's production. Antropov is the one matched against Vinny and St.Louis, while Moore faces Malone and Recchi. Antropov is the one matched up against Ovechkin while Moore gets Victor Kozlov etc. Not to take away from Moore's accomplishments this season, his grit and leadership have been a big asset to the team, but his salary demands are making him a little delusional.

How many 3rd line centres make up around $3 million per season? How many players who play that role are really worth it? Who are the "best" 3rd line centres in the league? You look at guys like Madden, Draper, and Pahlsson as the cream of checking line centres and these are the only guys worth $3 million per year in a checking role. Bobby Holik and Mike Peca once were in that category too, and there might be a couple others I'm overlooking but that's it. Dominic Moore is good but he's not Kris Draper. Period. And if Drapes and Pahlsson, and Madden are the best at what these types of players do and they're making that money, what's Moore really worth?

I think a fair offer for Moore would be 4 years, $7 million ($1.75 million per season). Brian Burke's price range is about right. And memo to Dominic Moore, you are not Kris Draper. The end.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Trade Deadline playoff rentals:

With only 2 more days until the deadline (Christmas for hockey fans) here is a list of players who are UFA in the summer who could be moved on Wednesday:

Top Line Forwards:

Marion Gaborik - It's been said by Doug Riseborough recently that he'd probably sooner hold onto Gaborik even if it means losing him to free agency, rather than deal him for the terrible offers he's receiving. The hope is that Gaborik can come back from injury and help the Wild down the stretch and ideally in the playoffs.

Martin Havlatt - He's been in rumours all year but the Hawks are apperently now trying to sign him to an extension. But we'll see...

Keith Tkachuk - What can you say? He's still got it. Big Keith is the King of St.Louis but they'll trade him.

Nik Antropov - Have you heard? He's available. Big body Nik can score goals and he's a solid two-way player. He's also considered to be one of the best players in the NHL for standing in front of the net so any team who's lacking that element on the PP can look for Antropov.

Steve Sullivan - Personally I love Sully, he's really fast and a heads up player. He was hurt for a whole year but now he's back and his game seems to be coming along. Could be a good fit for Crosby's wing or any other team looking at renting a guy who can skate and play with top line guys.

Eric Cole - Not playing like a top line guy this year with the Oil, but he has been throughout his career and a change of scenary could be good for him and the team that acquires him.

Stud D-men:

Jay Bouwmeester - I don't think its been reported anywhere but he may be available. Joking aside I hate to say it but I'm betting on him staying a Panther until the end of the season. They look like they could make some noise heading into the playoffs.

Scott Niedermyer - Don't know if he's being shopped but with the Whitney deal and all the Pronger rumours it could be possible. Of course he'd have to waive the NTC.

Mattias Ohlund - Since Vancouver is in a good spot right now they'll keep him, but there have been reports suggesting he'll test the free agent waters. I would guess any deal involving Ohlund would have to include a player coming back who could make an immediate impact.

2nd-3rd line/Depth Centres:

Doug Weight - This guy can still play, he still has the hands and is a tremendous passer. He would be a great boost to any playoff bound team.
Ian Laperriere - Tons of interest apparently in the gritty 3rd line centre. Could bring exactly what a lot of teams are looking for heading into the playoffs
Sammy Pahlsson - I think the Ducks want him re-signed but we'll see
Steve Reinprecht - Under rated guy, good player for Phoenix. For a team really thin down the middle I would even say he'd be a capable 2nd line centre.
Dominic Moore - He's posted up over 40 pts in his best year ever so far. Could be a solid 3rd liner on a good team.
Radek Bonk - Defensive specialist could be a good boost down the middle as a 3rd line centre to a playoff team
Mike Comrie - I know he was just traded but if Ottawa is selling he could be moved again
Tyler Arnason - Talented 30 year old is flakey but skilled.
Brendan Morrison - Could be a useful 3rd line centre
Mike Sillinger - the king of trade deadline day has played for 13 different teams
Derek Armstrong - 4th line centre, takes draws, kills penalties etc.
Andy Hilbert - Quietly having a decent year on long Island. Depth forward.
Todd Marchant - Doubt there'd be interest but could move
Marty Reasoner - 4th liner at this point, but reliable guy

Wingers:

Bill Guerin - According to some sources he's already been traded and they're just hammering out the details. So its almost a guarantee he'll be moved and he's still playing a high level of hockey. Could play any role on a strong team, whether its 1st line or even 3rd.
Chris Neil - He's either available or Ottawa wants to re-sign him, I guess we'll find out which. I imagine lots of teams will be interested especially if Laperierre is dealt, Neil could be a back up option for teams looking for a tough guy.
Jere Lehtinen - I don't think the Stars are sellers but Lehtinen's name has come up in rumours. He's a former Selke guy so you know he's reliable, even though he's lost his scoring touch in his twighlight years.
Max Afinogenov - He's supposedly being shopped by Buffalo. The only reason I could see anyone wanting him is the fact that he's a UFA in the summer. But as a streaky player, if the price wasn't too steep why not deal for him and hope he can get hot down the stretch.
Gary Roberts - Warrior on his last leg. Could be a boost though to some teams, even if he doesn't play every day consider that Lanny MacDonald was a scratch in a handful of games in the playoffs of 1989 and was a last second addition to the line up for game 6 in Montreal where he made history. Why couldn't Gary (possibly also with Calgary) be a guy you put in the line up here and there and have him when you need him?
Joel Ward - Like you I only heard of this guy this year, but the 28 year old his playing really good hockey for Nashville. The price would likely not be steep and he could be a guy worth renting for a lot of teams.
Mark Recchi - He can still play, could be a reliable 3rd line guy and provide some skill and grit.
Dean McAmmond - great speed for a 36 year old, although only 4 goals this year...
Travis Moen - solid grinder
Matt Pettinger - decent skater, smart player, depth guy.
Scott Parker - Enforcer. Someone could pick up the tough guy.

Depth @ D:

Francois Beauchemin - Good player, capable of being even a top pairing guy.
Nic Havelid - Solid defensive d-man. I think Atlanta will move him and lots of teams will have interest
Filip Kuba - Could be a top pairing guy in a few teams, easily a top 4 but reports indicate he won't waive his NTC to leave Ottawa
Jordan Leopold - Tier 2 puck moving d-man could be plan B for teams not able to land Pronger, Bouwmeester, Kaberle.
Nick Boynton - Falling out with coach DeBoers has put him in the trade rumours. Decent depth d-man, big body.
Denis Gauthier - Kings hitting machine is 32 years old and I think would be an underrated pick up. He sometimes gives up odd man rushes, but always makes huge hits. He could be what a lot of teams are looking for.
Greg Zanon - Great trash talker. One thing I remember about his guy in last years playoffs is: "Five hole, five hole! Hasek you old F*#!"

Top 10 Available Goalies:

1. Nik Backstrom - Wild Stud will probably stay put, but he's been in rumours and if contract talks aren't going well he could be dealt. Riseborough obviously realizes that the possibility of losing Gaborik and Backstrom to free agency this summer after having lost Demitra and Rolston last year could set this franchise back to basically being an expansion team with Mikko Koivu.
2. Manny Fernandez - Timmy Thomas is the starter but Fernandez is a great insurance policy. However, if Boston gets a deal that could help them, they could move Manny.
3. Nik Khabiboulan - Not in the rumours as much as earlier in the year, but with his recent (minor) injury and Huet's great play, the Hawks could comfortably move Nik if they could get value back (2nd line centre maybe?)
4. Dwayne Roloson - Oilers goalie is hot right now and the Oilers need him, but if they decide to sell he would be valuable.
5. Marty Biron - Only will be moved if there's an upgrade out there for the Flyers (Backstrom?)
6. Scott Clemmensson - Has shown himself to be a reliable backup during Brodeurs injury. Now he could be a valuable trade commodity.
7. Manny Legace - If you think he's worthless just because he cleared waivers, then you don't get it. That was a salary cap issue. (see Jussi Jokinen who cleared waivers a few weeks ago with Tampa only to be dealt for a draft pick and 2 players the following day). Manny has trade value for a team looking for a veteran back up.
8. Brent Johnson - Caps could be looking for an upgrade in goal and if Theodore is unmoveable, Johnson becomes the 3rd wheel.
9. Joey MacDonald - Joey's been good this year in DP's absence. The Islanders may try to sign him to an extension, but on the other hand there could be interest in him as an insurance policy for a team needing a back up upgrade (Calgary?)
10. Andrew Raycroft - As a rental, maybe a team will bite and pick him up heading into the playoffs. Only as a backup though.