Leafs Projections

With the latest moves (see my last two blogs below) it appears BB is done playing with the roster as the Leafs head into training camp. Christian Hanson was re-signed today and now the Leafs have the maximum 50 players under contract. What I'd like to do is give my predictions on the team followed by 2 sets of projections. The first is will be what I believe is going to be realistically obtained by these Leafs, and the 2nd is what I think could be feasible, albeit optimistic, and what it would take to bring this roster into the post-season.

PREDICTION: 11th in the East, 23rd overall.

PROJECTIONS:
PLAYER.................GP.....G....A....PTS
Phil Kessel.....................76.....36....32.....68
Kris Versteeg................82....25....33......58
Tomas Kaberle.............82......7.....47......54
Nikolai Kulemin............82....23....22......45
Tyler Bozak..................72.....16....27.......43
Dion Phaneuf................82.....12....28.......40
Mikhail Grabovski.......70.....14....24.......38
Clarke MacArthur.......82.....15....19.......34
Francois Beauchemin..82.....6......27.......33
Carl Gunnarsson..........82.....7......25.......32
Colby Armstrong.........82.....12....18.......30
Luca Caputi..................62.....10....18......28
Nazem Kadri................45......6.....16.......22
Luke Schenn................82......5.....15........20
John Mitchell...............68......7.......9........16
Fred Sjostrom..............77......5......10.......15
Christian Hanson.........55.....5.......9.........14
Mike Brown..................82.....4.......6.........10
Matt Lashoff.................36.....1.......8..........9
Colton Orr....................82......3.......5..........8
Bret Lebda...................48......2.......4..........6
Mike Komisarek..........60.....1.......3..........4

JS Giguere - 21-20-6/ GAA 2.71/ SV% .903
Jonas Gustavsson - 14-16-5/ GAA 2.78/ SV% .896

These projections would total 216 goals, which would put them around 20th in goal scoring on a typical year (as low as 23-24th as high as 17-18). It would be a scoring by comittee style of team, and I think it has to be. As you can see from these projections, it would not be a good enough team to make the playoffs, but a young team with some promise.

Couple of notes: I have Kadri as making the team for part of the season but spending half the year in the AHL in this prediction. A few guys who are prone to injuries I took out for some games (ie Komisarek misses 22) but ultimately no one misses significant time for the sake of projections. I realize only 6 d-men will dress per game (or maybe sometimes 7) so I have guys like Lashoff and Lebda playing shorter seasons. Other guys that I think could be in and out of the line up are Hanson and Caputi, but that could just as easily be Brown and McArthur, I kind of had to pick and choose, just for the sake of arguement let's say its the guys I said. There is no such team as a team icing 18 skaters for 82 games so I played with the numbers.

Now, if these Leafs are going to make the playoffs, which I think is a possibility, it would take some breakout years from some of these young guys. The rest of the squad will have to pull their own weight and their best players will have to be their best. Here are the tangible numbers that I believe it will take for this team to be a playoff bound team:

PLAYER.................GP.....G....A....PTS
Phil Kessel.....................76.....38....35.....73
Kris Versteeg................82....27....34......61
Tomas Kaberle.............82......7.....47......54
Dion Phaneuf................82.....16....37......53
Nikolai Kulemin............82....23....27......50
Tyler Bozak..................72.....18....27.......45
Mikhail Grabovski.......70.....14....31.......45
Clarke MacArthur.......82.....18....22.......40
Colby Armstrong.........82......15....21......36
Francois Beauchemin..82.....6......27.......33
Carl Gunnarsson..........82.....7......25.......32
Luca Caputi..................62.....10....18.......28
Nazem Kadri................45......8.....20.......28
Luke Schenn................82......5.....17........22
John Mitchell...............68......9.......9........18
Fred Sjostrom..............77......5......10.......15
Christian Hanson.........55.....5.......9.........14
Mike Brown..................82.....4.......6.........10
Matt Lashoff.................36.....1.......8..........9
Colton Orr....................82......3.......5..........8
Bret Lebda...................48......2.......4..........6
Mike Komisarek..........60.....1.......3..........4

JS Giguere - 26-19-3/ GAA 2.59/ SV% .916
Jonas Gustavsson - 16-14-4/ GAA 2.67/ SV% .902

This brings them in up over 230 goals which would put them anywhere from 6-15 on a typical year (its usually tight, each team a couple goals apart from eachother), and with improved defensive play from the team, they could make the playoffs. Another key difference in these projections is Dion Phaneuf going from good to great, this will be a big factor.