Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Leafs Projections

With the latest moves (see my last two blogs below) it appears BB is done playing with the roster as the Leafs head into training camp. Christian Hanson was re-signed today and now the Leafs have the maximum 50 players under contract. What I'd like to do is give my predictions on the team followed by 2 sets of projections. The first is will be what I believe is going to be realistically obtained by these Leafs, and the 2nd is what I think could be feasible, albeit optimistic, and what it would take to bring this roster into the post-season.

PREDICTION: 11th in the East, 23rd overall.

PROJECTIONS:
PLAYER.................GP.....G....A....PTS
Phil Kessel.....................76.....36....32.....68
Kris Versteeg................82....25....33......58
Tomas Kaberle.............82......7.....47......54
Nikolai Kulemin............82....23....22......45
Tyler Bozak..................72.....16....27.......43
Dion Phaneuf................82.....12....28.......40
Mikhail Grabovski.......70.....14....24.......38
Clarke MacArthur.......82.....15....19.......34
Francois Beauchemin..82.....6......27.......33
Carl Gunnarsson..........82.....7......25.......32
Colby Armstrong.........82.....12....18.......30
Luca Caputi..................62.....10....18......28
Nazem Kadri................45......6.....16.......22
Luke Schenn................82......5.....15........20
John Mitchell...............68......7.......9........16
Fred Sjostrom..............77......5......10.......15
Christian Hanson.........55.....5.......9.........14
Mike Brown..................82.....4.......6.........10
Matt Lashoff.................36.....1.......8..........9
Colton Orr....................82......3.......5..........8
Bret Lebda...................48......2.......4..........6
Mike Komisarek..........60.....1.......3..........4

JS Giguere - 21-20-6/ GAA 2.71/ SV% .903
Jonas Gustavsson - 14-16-5/ GAA 2.78/ SV% .896

These projections would total 216 goals, which would put them around 20th in goal scoring on a typical year (as low as 23-24th as high as 17-18). It would be a scoring by comittee style of team, and I think it has to be. As you can see from these projections, it would not be a good enough team to make the playoffs, but a young team with some promise.

Couple of notes: I have Kadri as making the team for part of the season but spending half the year in the AHL in this prediction. A few guys who are prone to injuries I took out for some games (ie Komisarek misses 22) but ultimately no one misses significant time for the sake of projections. I realize only 6 d-men will dress per game (or maybe sometimes 7) so I have guys like Lashoff and Lebda playing shorter seasons. Other guys that I think could be in and out of the line up are Hanson and Caputi, but that could just as easily be Brown and McArthur, I kind of had to pick and choose, just for the sake of arguement let's say its the guys I said. There is no such team as a team icing 18 skaters for 82 games so I played with the numbers.

Now, if these Leafs are going to make the playoffs, which I think is a possibility, it would take some breakout years from some of these young guys. The rest of the squad will have to pull their own weight and their best players will have to be their best. Here are the tangible numbers that I believe it will take for this team to be a playoff bound team:

PLAYER.................GP.....G....A....PTS
Phil Kessel.....................76.....38....35.....73
Kris Versteeg................82....27....34......61
Tomas Kaberle.............82......7.....47......54
Dion Phaneuf................82.....16....37......53
Nikolai Kulemin............82....23....27......50
Tyler Bozak..................72.....18....27.......45
Mikhail Grabovski.......70.....14....31.......45
Clarke MacArthur.......82.....18....22.......40
Colby Armstrong.........82......15....21......36
Francois Beauchemin..82.....6......27.......33
Carl Gunnarsson..........82.....7......25.......32
Luca Caputi..................62.....10....18.......28
Nazem Kadri................45......8.....20.......28
Luke Schenn................82......5.....17........22
John Mitchell...............68......9.......9........18
Fred Sjostrom..............77......5......10.......15
Christian Hanson.........55.....5.......9.........14
Mike Brown..................82.....4.......6.........10
Matt Lashoff.................36.....1.......8..........9
Colton Orr....................82......3.......5..........8
Bret Lebda...................48......2.......4..........6
Mike Komisarek..........60.....1.......3..........4

JS Giguere - 26-19-3/ GAA 2.59/ SV% .916
Jonas Gustavsson - 16-14-4/ GAA 2.67/ SV% .902

This brings them in up over 230 goals which would put them anywhere from 6-15 on a typical year (its usually tight, each team a couple goals apart from eachother), and with improved defensive play from the team, they could make the playoffs. Another key difference in these projections is Dion Phaneuf going from good to great, this will be a big factor.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Leafs Making Moves

Brian Burke just acquired Matt Lashoff from Tampa Bay by moving out 2 minor league contracts. This is not a huge move but it opens up room to acquire more players. NHL teams can only have 50 players under contract total, and the Leafs were right up against the limit, this move now allows them to sign a free agent or make another trade.

So stay tuned for more trades or a UFA signing, it should be coming soon.

The players the Leafs moved are minor leaguer's Alex Berry and Stefano Gilati. Matt Lashoff was a first round pick in 2005 by the Bruins, 22nd overall. He's 6'2", 205 lbs, and his cap hit is $550K. He should push Keith Aulie and Jeff Finger at camp for the 8th spot on the Leafs blueline. Lashoff is set to become an RFA next summer.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Leafs Rumours

MapleLeafs.com - Mike Ulmer says that the Leafs could be close to signing UFA Raffi Torres
Hockeybuzz - Eklund says that Paul Kariya has had minor talks with Pittsburgh, serious talks with Anaheim, and if that doesn't work out he could consider Toronto.
- Eklund also writes that the Leafs could be making some sort of deal by Thursday
- Eklund also "heard" that if a Kovalchuk deal gets done in New Jersey they could be moving Danius Zubrus, with Toronto listed as 1 of 3 possible destinations.
Ottawa Sun - Leafs will try to get an extension done with Tomas Kaberle
Toronto Star - Leafs not likely to get an extension done with Tomas Kaberle, won't be asked to waive NTC and will probably walk next summer (Damien Cox, negativity)
Columbus dispatch - Burke has said to have interest in Raffi Torres.
TheFourthPeriod - Leafs not out of contention for Marc Savard
Some random rumours - Leafs minor interest in Mike Comrie at a very low salary? Also Tyler Arnason to a two-way or minor league deal.

That's it for now

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Minnesota making moves

James Sheppard on the block?

Looking at the guys that the Wild brought in this summer, they've given themselves some real depth down the middle with the signings of John Madden and Matt Cullen. I guess with the injuries to PM Bouchard being more severe than originally thought they felt it was necessary to bring in another centre.

But having said that they've got Mikko Koivu as their number 1, and are really paying Cullen to be a number two, which I believe he is capable. John Madden would fill in as a checking line centre, but I don't think Sheppard fits in with this team anymore unless you pencil him in at #2 and push Cullen and Madden down. There has been some other speculation on the internet that Sheppard could be on the block.

Keep an eye on this one