8 games left for Toronto, and we're 5 points out of the playoffs. We have to pass Carolina and Buffalo, who both have a game in hand on us.
Here's some math for you:
If the Leafs go 6-2-0 in the last 8 games, starting tonight, that will be a really solid record and mean 88 points. To get into the playoffs we'd need the following records for the teams ahead of/right behind us:
Buffalo: 3-5-1 we're in. 4-6-0 we're out. ***Must beat Buffalo on Tuesday to have tie breaker
Carolina: 5-4-0 we're in. 5-3-1 we're out.
Atlanta: 8-2-0 we're in. 8-1-1 we're out.
New Jersey: 7-2-1 we're in. 8-2-0 we're out.
The way I see it, a 6-2-0 record will not be good enough unless Buffalo really falls apart. Atlanta would be eliminated because they're not going to turn it on now and post that kind of record, New Jersey probably the same deal, never know with them but 8-2-0 seems really unlikely. Carolina, its possible because their next 4 games are up against Washington, Montreal, and two with Tampa. All good teams, so I think Carolina will end up around 5-4-0 at best. But Buffalo is rolling right now, and you figure they will win 5 or 6 of their last 9 games. Five wins for Buffalo would force the leafs to go 7-0-1. Six wins for Buffalo mathematically eliminates the Leafs. Which is why it sucks to not control your own fate.
The next three games against Colorado, Detroit, and Buffalo will be key for the Leafs. If we can win all three of those, and get some help from (at least) 1 of Florida, NYR, or New Jersey, then by next Wednesday we could be within 3 points of the Sabres, each team having 5 games remaining. Then the math gets a bit easier. If Buffalo could possible lose to us, New Jersey AND New York, we could be 1 point out by Wendesday. Kind of a long shot but possible. Anyway's starting to rant now, I'll re-do the math if the Leafs win the next three.